Brain imaging and forecasting: Insights from judgmental model selection

Judgmental forecasting from graphs and from experience

Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting

Judgmental bootstrapping is a type of expert system. It translates an experts' rules into a quantitative model by regressing the experts' forecasts against the information that he used. Bootstrapping models apply an experts' rules consistently, and many studies have shown that decisions and predictions from bootstrapping models are similar to those from the experts. Three studies showed that bo...

Visual Selective Attention: Insights from Brain Imaging

The contents of our minds at any given moment are not rigidly determined by the stimuli that happen to be impinging on our senses. Instead, we perceivers actively select a subset of the available perceptual information for detailed processing, relegating other information to the shadows of consciousness. This active process of perceptual selection, attention, has been the topic of extensive stu...

The psychopath magnetized: insights from brain imaging.

Psychopaths commit a disproportionate amount of violent crime, and this places a substantial economic and emotional burden on society. Elucidation of the neural correlates of psychopathy may lead to improved management and treatment of the condition. Although some methodological issues remain, the neuroimaging literature is generally converging on a set of brain regions and circuits that are co...

Forecasting, Model Averaging and Model Selection

Abstract This paper explores forecasting using model selection and model averaging and attempts to draw conclusion both in the context of stationarity and non-stationarity. Model averaging tends to be viewed as a polar opposite of model selection; often the motivation for averaging is to avoid the pitfalls of selecting models. However, selection cannot be avoided since every possible model cann...